Before the 2024 season, Joanna Hardin, the head coach of the University of Virginia (UVA) softball team, and her coaching staff asked me to help them identify essential Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) that would enhance their chances of qualifying for the NCAA tournament. In 2023, UVA finished 59th in the Rating Percentage Index (RPI) and found themselves on the bubble going into the last weekend of the regular season. The highest RPI team to make the tournament last season was ranked 45th, meaning they were very close. My goal was to provide them with quantifiable statistics that they could use as targets to track their progression throughout the regular season and put them into the postseason conversation.
The Process
To start, I compiled data available publicly online, focusing on conferences that included schools ranked within the top 45 in the 2023 RPI. I collected all offensive, defensive and pitching metrics available. I repeated this process for the 2022 season but not for 2020 or 2021 because of COVID and its effect on those seasons. I decided that the two most recent seasons were the most comparable to the upcoming 2024 season.
From there, I ran individual correlation analysis between winning percentage and the statistics I gathered independently. While the goal of the analysis is based around RPI, correlating statistics to a ranking would lead to inconsistent results. The RPI ranking consists of multiple statistical components including a team’s winning percentage, strength of schedule (SOS) and their opponent’s strength of schedule. Out of those components, winning percentage is the sole statistic completely within the team’s control.
I opted to assess winning percentage against per-game statistics to mitigate any imbalances stemming from variations in the schedule. Here were the notable results of the analysis:
Takeaways
Seven different offensive categories and four pitching categories showed a strong correlation during the analysis. Since runs determine who wins or loses, it makes sense that a majority of the highest correlating statistics are based around that. I found another statistic of interest: BB ratio. This statistic consisted of dividing walks taken by walks surrendered. My hypothesis is that teams who won the free bases battle would win more ball games. This statistic proved to have a moderately strong correlation.
One interesting takeaway is the limited correlation between winning and fielding percentage. The lowest fielding percentage for a NCAA tournament team was .957, which was only .017 higher than Memphis, who was ranked at 226. While this statistic gives a very holistic overview of defense, it does not discredit its importance in any way. There’s more to a defense than “not making errors,” so this should be taken with a grain of salt. If I had access to more advanced fielding metrics, such as Outs Above Average, I believe there would have been a stronger correlation.
Another interesting takeaway is the significance of R/BR: Runs to Base Runners. This calculation divides the total runs scored by hits, walks and hit by pitches. I added this statistic because I wanted to tie getting runners on base and scoring. It’s one thing to get on base (OBP is a very important statistic), but can you score the runners? The best team’s the last two seasons were scoring over 50% of their runners that reached base, showing their ability to string hits together and put pressure on the opposition’s defenses. Struggling teams scored only 40% of their baserunners, making them more susceptible to strikeouts and weak contact. If a team gets 10 base runners per game, that’s the difference of one run each time out.
UVA Softball
After finding the statistics with significant correlations, I analyzed UVA’s 2023 performance against the 33 Power 5 programs in the top 45 RPI. While the correlation analysis was done against the winning percentage, the task was to find KPIs that enhance their ability to get into the NCAA tournament. Notre Dame, with an RPI of 45, was the highest ranked team to receive an at-large bid in 2023, thus setting the ceiling.
Only using Power 5 schools speaks to the other two components of RPI: SOS and opponent’s SOS. Power 5 schools have a more comparable SOS across the board, primarily due to the strength of their conference schedule. The lowest SOS for a Power 5 school in the top 40 RPI was 46 (Indiana University), compared to a 172 SOS for a mid-major (Boston University).
Through this process, I was able to analyze and devise a set of KPIs for UVA. Using the correlation analysis, the KPIs and statistics provided proved to be consistent with what needs to be accomplished to reach the NCAA tournament.
I conducted an extra analysis evaluating UVA’s performance against those KPIs from the previous season. This assessment highlighted their primary areas for improvement and outlined strategies for addressing them to align with the objectives set for the 2024 season. For instance, in 2023, UVA lagged behind by 0.5 runs in meeting the runs per game KPI that I had established. They scored around 44% of their base runners with the help of their team’s unselfish offense approach and fearlessness on the basepaths, exemplified by an impressive 99 stolen bases last season.
The primary focus for improving their runs per game lies in their ability to get runners on base. Getting on base consists of either collecting hits or free passes. Although they ranked 4th in walks per game in the ACC, the major potential for improvement lies in increasing their hits. A strategic aim to add just one more hit or walk per game, while maintaining the same efficiency in scoring baserunners, could position them perfectly to meet their KPI targets.
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In conclusion, the correlation analysis provided valuable insights into key factors that correlate to success. As UVA looks to make their push to the 2024 NCAA tournament, defining KPIs offer a roadmap for strategic improvements and targeted training. I want to thank the coaching staff of the University of Virginia for their collaboration and willingness to explore a data-driven approach. Their curiosity and openness to incorporating data into the coaching process demonstrates a commitment to excellence. I look forward to watching them succeed in 2024!
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